A difficult Euro Qualifier Draw may ultimately benefit Ireland for two reasons.

Ireland’s draw for the Euro2025 qualifiers couldn’t have been much more difficult. The only thing that could have made it harder would have been drawing Spain rather than France as a top seed (which is not much of a step down). England were the 2nd seed to avoid, and Sweden were the most difficult 4th seed. On balance looking across the 4 League A Groups this is the one that qualifies as the group of death.

Ireland know something about groups of death in football. At the World Cup it was a arduous task of taking on Australia, Canada, and Nigeria who all had significantly more World Cup experience. In fact, on the men’s side of things pretty much any time the Boys in Green have made it to a major tournament the group they’ve found themselves in has been one of the more difficult draws. Maybe when it comes to big group stage draws Ireland are just destined to get a difficult time, men’s or women’s.

When we look at Ireland as the 4th seeds in a group along side France, England, and Sweden the expectation is Ireland finish 4th in that group. That’s not the end of the world because an excellent Nations League campaign means there’s at least a play-off spot on offer. If Ireland had stayed in League B there would be significant pressure, we would have needed our team to finish in the top 2 to get a play-off place or face relegation.

How it all works is the top 2 teams in each league A group qualify for the tournament automatically, while 3rd and 4th place go into the two-legged play-off semi-finals, crucially against one of the top ranked teams from league C. So regardless of where Ireland finish in Group C of League A, there is still every chance of getting to the tournament. Hosts Switzerland have qualified regardless of where they finish in their group. So the 8 teams that finish 3rd and 4th in League A will play the 5 group winners and the best 3 group runners-up in the play-off semi-finals. As well as those 8 ties there will be 6 ties involving League B teams, with the higher ranked sides being drawn against a lower ranked side. The play-off finals will see 7 games with the winners advancing. Here the seeding is determined by the overall qualifier ranking, with the 7 winners of ties involving the 7 higher ranked sides being seeded. So essentially if a League C team was to pull an upset and beat a high ranked League A team, they would be seeded in the finals. It’s all a bit complicated but will become clearer once we get to that stage.

The main thing to remember is Ireland have at the very least a play-off place, with a winnable semi-final against a League C team. And if the Girls in Green can finish above at least one other League A side in the rankings, then there is an opportunity to be a seeded team in the play-off final. Finland, Poland, and Czech Republic are the three League A teams to look out for in the hopes that one has a worse record than Ireland.

Not to sound too bleak about a team that has proven capable of hanging with higher ranked sides but a play-off is the likely outcome, with finishing 4th also a strong possibility. If that happens Ireland will be well prepared for a play-off series that will be against teams who have either a much lower or similar ranking to Ireland.

Looking back the Euro 2022 qualifying campaign was a missed opportunity. It came down to an away draw in Greece (which could be known as some kind of tragedy) and a frustrating loss against Ukraine where there were a multitude of chances for Ireland to get through. If one of those results had of been different Ireland would have found their way to a play-off. Fast forward to the Summer of 2023 and IReland played at the Women’s World Cup for the first time. But how did we get there?

Throughout the international breaks before the World Cup Qualifiers in 2021, Ireland played friendlies against several higher ranked. Ireland would lose friendlies to Denmark, Belgium, twice against Iceland, before getting a monumental win against Australia in December. They ere difficult tests and a run of 4 defeats in a row may have raised questions about the decision. However the difficult challenges stood to Ireland and contributed to reaching the play-offs for the World Cup.

In the first game of the qualifiers Ireland would be very competitive in an unfortunate loss to Sweden before picking up a crucial away win in Finland. Ireland dripped points at home to a stubborn Slovakia before achieving a record win at home to Georgia. After some Pinatar cup action in early 2022 the Girls in Green resumed the campaign with a bang in holding Sweden to a draw in Gothenburg. From there Ireland won the remaining three group games and the play-off.

While a series of friendly defeats following a difficult qualifying campaign meant things weren’t looking great, those tests stood to Ireland. While it’s nice to have 9-0 wins against lowly opposition, you learn as a team when playing against teams at or above your level. That’s actually something beneficial about the Nations League, the lowest ranked teams don’t need to face barbaric scorelines and the teams outside the elite can see how they do against the best. Ireland breezed through the Nations League campaign (which was helped by having World Cup experience) and can now go against the very best.

Going up against the very best will usually result in a few tough results, which act as tough lessons. If Ireland lose out in all 6 games, they go into a play-off series with practice of playing significantly better sides. That means defending against better attacks, and attacking against better defenders. Every player who plays significant minutes during the campaign will learn something and the experience will stand to them. While there would have been easier groups, Ireland still would have been 4th favourite out of any of them to qualify, so if it’s going to be a tough ask it may as well be a tough ask that offers multiple genuine learning curves.

I mentioned there are two ways Ireland may benefit. We’ve looked at how the more difficult matches will have Ireland well-prepared. The other benefit is down to a quirk of the Nations League, and a possible downside of the competition.

The teams that finish 4th in the League A groups are relegated to League B for the next Nations League campaign which takes place after the Euros. So Ireland could be making a return to the 2nd tier. Bizarrely getting relegated could be a benefit. The Nations League will be linked to the qualifiers for the World Cup. So for whoever gets relegated from League A, they will have what is on paper an easier Nations League campaign in League B. This means they will have a good chance of promotion back to League A for the World Cup qualifiers, which means they will have an opportunity to qualify automatically and a higher chance of getting a play-off. On the flip side, if a team is relegated from League A in the next Nations League then they will not be able to qualify for he World Cup automatically. It’s a bit of mental gymnastics but strangely it would likely work out better for any League A side to get relegated now than next year. It should be noted that the World Cup qualifier format has not been fully decided on and there are less places available for European sides. But it’s worth noting the Nations League allows for a strange bit of manipulation.

Ireland go into this League A campaign as underdogs, but of all the 4th seeds we were the ones the others would have least wanted to play. In the two recent friendlies there were positives against Italy before a reality check against Wales. All 6 games will be difficult tests, with Sweden being the most likely source of points. But this stiff test will ultimately help the team improve, and if there’s another major tournament to look forward to next year then the daunting trial will stand to Ireland.