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It feels like European Cup history has been waiting for this final. Two ultimate heavyweights, the two sides who have won the tournament the most times. Toulouse are the Real Madrid of European Rugby. Leinster have so often been dominant throughout the earlier rounds of the competition but haven’t been able to get over the line recently.

It feels like the last 20 minutes of this game will be he deciding factor. The first hour will likely be tight and cagey with both sides wearing each other down. Then the last quarter when the benches are emptied it will be all about running up a score and bull dozing through the opposition.
Leinster have been building towards a 6:2 split all season and have gone with it. It’s a risk but a necessary one. The whole season has revolved around playing a certain way and it’s too late to go back now.
- Despite not starting Frawley is a key player. Whether he comes on at centre, replaces Hugo Keenan who hasn’t seen much game time, or comes on a t fly half, he’s going to be a big playmaker in the later parts of the game.
- Ross Byrne continues to be trusted. We know what to expect from him at this stage, he’s reliable without setting the world on fire. He needs a goo day off the kicking tee. Ideally he’d have a simple enough one early on that he can convert to get the confidence up. If he can perform to the level he was a during the 2023 Six Nations and before last years European Cup final this will be a good day for him.
Looking at the last 3 finals Leinster have been in, they’ve taken an early lead then conceded before half time and lost control. In that sense the end of the first half is more important than the start of it for Leinster. Those last 10 minutes before halftime are crucial defensively.
- This has been an area Leinster haven’t been as good this season. Generally in the 30-40 minutes Leinster have been able to get a couple of scores in league games, but on a few occasions rather than building a lead they’ve seen theirs cut or reversed.
There’s a big psychological element to the game. Despite being the two best sides in the tournament this season both nearly lost their semi-final. Arguably it’s more important for a side to go in at halftime confidently with momentum than to come out and score early.
- It’s hard to know if Leinster benefit from being in the last two finals, but loosing 3 in a row would be disastrous. For a side that’s been consistently one of the best in the tournament only having 1 title in the past decade isn’t a good return.
  - A win on Saturday also helps Leinster in the URC in terms of pressure. Having not one the league or European Cup in the past 2 seasons going another year without either (as well as likely not winning the Irish Shield) would make for a long Summer.
As it happens both sides possess one of the worlds current best scrum halves. Whoever can get at the oppositions no.9 more and disrupt them will probably see the result go their way.

Hopefully the game is decided by a bit of brilliance and not a controversial refereeing decision or a moment of stupidity. By tomorrow at 3pm the time for talk will be over and two titans of European rugby do battle. As a rugby fan I’d love a close game, but as a Leinster supporter after the heartbreak of the past few seasons it’s all about getting over the line.

This week in Rugby Bullets it’s all about Leinster taking on Northampton Saints in Croke Park.

Leinster in Croke Park

The atmosphere in Croke Park will be incredible, before the game starts. From there it depends on what happens. While many at the game will be die-hard supporters of either side, there will also be some sunshine supporters. 80,000 is a lot of people, and 80,000 quiet people is as notable as 80,000 screaming people.
- From Northampton’s point of view they’ll be looking to score early and silence the crowd. While Leinster know they can come from behind a dead atmosphere won’t help. Suddenly sunshine supporters are on their phones and going for pints rather than getting behind the team.
  - There was a faux controversy stirred up that fans wouldn’t be allowed drink alcohol in their seats during the game, and that this was down to it not being GAA. In reality it’s the exact same case for GAA matches.
- Having been going to games at the RDS for a long time through ups and downs, I’ve seen it packed and half-full. When things weren’t going well before the 2015 World Cup it was easy to get a ticket. In and around the time of winning European Cups it was fashionable again to support Leinster. Well, not so much support as it was fashionable to go to Leinster matches, have pints and take selfies. So that’s the concern about the atmosphere for Croke Park, while there will be a lot of serious supporters there for the game, there will also be a large number there for the occasion who don’t contribute positively to the atmospher.
While writing this the team hasn’t been announced yet but here’s some thoughts on selection:
- This isn’t a game for a 6:2 split, it’s a game for a 5:3 with a few versatile backs.
- Gary Ringrose and Jimmy O’Brien are both apparently available while Hugo Keenan is likely out. I would say it’s too soon to bring in Ringrose or O’Brien. Ringrose would be a notable omission but he wasn’t having a good year before that and the Osbourne/Henshaw partnership has worked really well.
  - The ideal way to bring Ringrose back the following week against Ospreys and let him play the next week against Ulster. If there’s a European Cup final to be played by that time he’ll be in contention. Then there’s the Connacht match leading into the URC play-offs.
- Jimmy O’Brien would be a good versatile back to have on the bench but it may be a risk considering how little he has played. Ciarán Frawley will no doubt be in the squad, so a lot depends on whether he s flyhalf cover or if Harry Byrne takes up that roll.
- Ross Byrne has earned his start. If everyone’s fit it makes sense to stick with one starting 10 for the big games of the season. What those big games are depends on if there’s a European Cup final to play in, but regardless Leinster need to win their 3 remaining URC matches to get a home semi-final and avoid a potential trip to Munster, Glasgow or Bulls before the final. Ross had an excellent game against La Rochelle and showed why at one point he was Ireland’s next 10.
  - Ross is hardly going to play all of the remaining games, but should probably be involved in some way in most of them. Sam Prendergast showed he was the real deal as one of the few bright sparks in South Africa. He deserves a bit of time in the remaining games.
- All will become clearer after Saturday in terms of how many games Leinster have left to play, right now it’s 4, 5, 6 or 7. Regardless all of them are important and the squad will have to be used right. While Leinster have benefited from rotation under Leo Cullen, this time of the season calls for picking a core group of players who are going to be involved going forward, that decision needs to be made after Saturday as to who they are.
Northampton won’t be an easy team to play against. Leinster have to avoid making the game overly lose and giving away cheap possession. It feels as though going in ahead at halftime will have much more of an impact of the final result than it did when the sides met in the 2011 final.