It feels like European Cup history has been waiting for this final. Two ultimate heavyweights, the two sides who have won the tournament the most times. Toulouse are the Real Madrid of European Rugby. Leinster have so often been dominant throughout the earlier rounds of the competition but haven’t been able to get over the line recently.

• It feels like the last 20 minutes of this game will be he deciding factor. The first hour will likely be tight and cagey with both sides wearing each other down. Then the last quarter when the benches are emptied it will be all about running up a score and bull dozing through the opposition.
• Leinster have been building towards a 6:2 split all season and have gone with it. It’s a risk but a necessary one. The whole season has revolved around playing a certain way and it’s too late to go back now.
  • Despite not starting Frawley is a key player. Whether he comes on at centre, replaces Hugo Keenan who hasn’t seen much game time, or comes on a t fly half, he’s going to be a big playmaker in the later parts of the game.
  • Ross Byrne continues to be trusted. We know what to expect from him at this stage, he’s reliable without setting the world on fire. He needs a goo day off the kicking tee. Ideally he’d have a simple enough one early on that he can convert to get the confidence up. If he can perform to the level he was a during the 2023 Six Nations and before last years European Cup final this will be a good day for him.
• Looking at the last 3 finals Leinster have been in, they’ve taken an early lead then conceded before half time and lost control. In that sense the end of the first half is more important than the start of it for Leinster. Those last 10 minutes before halftime are crucial defensively.
  • This has been an area Leinster haven’t been as good this season. Generally in the 30-40 minutes Leinster have been able to get a couple of scores in league games, but on a few occasions rather than building a lead they’ve seen theirs cut or reversed.
• There’s a big psychological element to the game. Despite being the two best sides in the tournament this season both nearly lost their semi-final. Arguably it’s more important for a side to go in at halftime confidently with momentum than to come out and score early.
  • It’s hard to know if Leinster benefit from being in the last two finals, but loosing 3 in a row would be disastrous. For a side that’s been consistently one of the best in the tournament only having 1 title in the past decade isn’t a good return.
    • A win on Saturday also helps Leinster in the URC in terms of pressure. Having not one the league or European Cup in the past 2 seasons going another year without either (as well as likely not winning the Irish Shield) would make for a long Summer.
• As it happens both sides possess one of the worlds current best scrum halves. Whoever can get at the oppositions no.9 more and disrupt them will probably see the result go their way.

Hopefully the game is decided by a bit of brilliance and not a controversial refereeing decision or a moment of stupidity. By tomorrow at 3pm the time for talk will be over and two titans of European rugby do battle. As a rugby fan I’d love a close game, but as a Leinster supporter after the heartbreak of the past few seasons it’s all about getting over the line.